Flooding Likely For Portions Of Southeast
A soaking storm could produce more localized flooding early this week from Florida and the Southeast to the mid-Atlantic as it sluggishly moves eastward while tapping into an atmospheric river.
Forecast Timing
The storm system is producing areas of locally heavy rain in the Southeast right now. Below is a look at the latest radar along with any active watches and/or warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
-Through Monday Night: We expect thunderstorms with locally heavy rain to persist in the Southeast. Localized flash flooding is possible from Florida northward into parts Georgia,the Carolinas and Virginia. South Florida,including Miami,has a particularly heightened risk of flooding rainfall,especially in urban areas.
-Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger over the Southeast,but the greatest chance of localized flooding will shift north into the mid-Atlantic. That includes parts of the Washington,D.C. metro and Richmond and Norfolk,Virginia.
-Wednesday: Pockets of rainfall will persist in the East,but the storm system should finally begin to exit.
Too Much Of A Good Thing?
This rainfall has been great news for drought-stricken areas of the Southeast,particularly Florida,where occasional wildfires have scorched parts of the state as they near the end of the fall-through-spring dry season.
But this locally heavy rain over multiple days could lead to flash flooding,particularly in urban areas of South Florida and the hills and mountains of the Appalachians.
Why So Stubbornly Wet?
There are two main reasons for this sluggishly wet forecast.
First,an area of low pressure in the Southeast is being blocked by high pressure to the north. That means it will move very slowly,and slow-moving lows mean slow-moving areas of precipitation.
Second,this Southeast low is tapping a plume of deep moisture known as an atmospheric river.
You may have heard this term used for Pacific storms hammering the West Coast,but they occur around the world,including in the eastern United States.
By Monday or Tuesday,this atmospheric river plume could be almost 2,000 miles long from Central America to the mid-Atlantic states.
Atmospheric rivers can wring out heavy rain due to their incredible moisture content. One study estimated that the moisture flux is roughly equal to that of the Amazon River – about 176,000 tons per second.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at www.weathernow24.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky,X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
