Severe Weather Ramps Up Mid To Late Week
Severe weather for May standards has been quiet so far this month in much of the Plains and Midwest,but a pattern change later this week could ramp up the threat,including possible tornadoes.
Forecast Timing
-Wednesday-Wednesday Night: The start of this increased threat of severe weather will begin in the Northern Plains,especially from parts of the Dakotas into southwest Minnesota,western Iowa and eastern Nebraska. Right now,wind damage and large hail appear to be the primary threats.
-Thursday-Thursday Night:Areas shaded in orange below from parts of Wisconsin,Michigan,Illinois,Indiana and western Ohio southward to portions of Kentucky,southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee have a chance to see severe weather,including Chicago,Indianapolis and Milwaukee.
Wind damage,large hail and tornado threat could accompany the severe storms,but the forecast will be refined in future updates to outline areas of potential greater concern. It's possible the storms remain relatively isolated,so that's one forecast aspect we are monitoring closely.
-Friday: Highest confidence in possible severe weather to end the workweek includes western and middle Tennessee,western Kentucky,southeast Missouri,northeast Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This could be expanded or shifted in future updates.
-Weekend-Early Next Week:"An active period of severe weather is anticipated through early next week,"said NOAA's Prediction Center with regards to the long-term forecast on Monday.
That could include severe storms impacting parts of the Plains,Midwest,South and even the East this weekend into next Monday,but it's too early for additional details,so check back to Weather Now 24 App and www.weathernow24.com for updates.
-What To Do:Make sure you know where to seek safe shelter when severe weather strikes. Have several ways of receiving watches and warnings from the National Weather Service,including by smartphone (Weather Now 24 app can alert you),NOAA weather radio and local media.
A More Favorable Pattern For Severe Weather
A pair of southward plunges of the jet stream will carve into the West,then spread toward the central states. One will arrive later this week followed by another this weekend into early next week.
In this pattern,warm and humid air eventually streams north from the Gulf into the Plains and Midwest under that active jet stream.
It's a setup more favorable for severe thunderstorms this time of year in the the Plains and Midwest,which are the regions where tornadoes are most common in May.
Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with www.weathernow24.com for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with Weather Now 24 in the early 2000s.
